How To Send Your Profits Up As America’s Homebuilders Go Down
Wednesday, February 25, 2009
by Martin Denholm, Managing Editor, Smart Profits Report
Hey… wake up, Larry. The coffee is ready.
If you were as amazed as I was at the sight of President Obama’s chief economic advisor, Larry Summers, snoozing through Obama’s Fiscal Responsibility Summit on Monday (on the podium, no less), hopefully these numbers will shake him out of his slumber…
The latest S&P/Case-Shiller index shows that home prices in 20 U.S. cities plummeted by 18.5% in December, compared with December 2007. On the back of an 18.2% slide in November, it was the fastest decline on record and extends a decline that began in 2005. The 10-city index fared even worse, sinking by an annual 19.2%.
From its high in 2006, the 20-city index has tanked by 27%, with Phoenix, Las Vegas, and San Francisco leading the way down during December. On a national scale, the Case-Shiller index showed an 18.2% drop compared with Q4 2007.
Let’s take a look at the real estate market and see how investors could play this news…
Homebuyers Should Have Adopted The PAYGO Plan
The housing numbers came just a day after Obama proposed a PAYGO approach to government spending at the Fiscal Responsibility Summit. Simply put, it’s based on the “You don’t spend what you don’t have” concept, making cuts to fund spending plans.
Forcing the government to balance its books and pay more attention to the national debt sounds great in theory. It’s an approach that helped turn America’s federal deficit into a surplus over the 1990s and the early part of the 2000s.
But of course, the country wasn’t mired in two prolonged military conflicts, nor did it face the worst economic climate in a generation - issues that don’t discriminate when it comes to book-balancing efforts or debt levels.
And at the current rate the government is going, it’s going to have to find a lot of extra pennies buried in the couch - or make some significant cuts - because Obama is clearly determined to spend his way back into prosperity.
There’s No Place Like Home For $275 Billion
With housing however, this fiscally responsible PAYGO approach would have worked wonders for many homebuyers who now find themselves clutching for the last bit of rope. Record foreclosures (up 83% to 2.3 million in 2008, according to RealtyTrac) and slumping property prices (down a record 8.2% in 2008, according to the Federal Housing Finance Board) have eaten into Americans’ wealth and eroded consumer spending, which makes up about two-thirds of the economy.
To combat it, Obama wants to pump $275 billion into the real estate market in order to flatten out its freefall. And as I wrote last week, $75 billion of that housing aid package will go towards allowing homeowners to refinance and lower their monthly mortgage payments in a bid to slow the foreclosure rate.
Whether these efforts will work… time will tell. But check out this interesting nugget from Minyanville:
“While pundits and politicians debate the various aspects of President Obama’s $275 billion housing bailout, one piece of data proves just how misguided federal efforts to revitalize the housing market are: $275 billion could buy more than half of all American homes already in foreclosure.
“Such an undertaking would remove distressed homes from the market and spur community revitalization efforts throughout areas desperately in need of the hope they were promised in November.”
The housing recovery isn’t going to happen anytime soon. With the foreclosure rate still rising (up 18% in January), it’s still squashing prices. And with home demand very weak, there’s a big supply of excess homes on the market.
And that’s crippling this industry…
Trouble For Toll
“The past five months have been among the most difficult in U.S. economic history.”
And the award for “Most Obvious Statement” goes to…
Robert Toll, CEO of fallen homebuilder giant Toll Brothers (NYSE: TOL).
Toll was speaking on the back of a 51% plunge in his company’s first quarter revenues - a trend symptomatic among the nation’s homebuilders.
Prospective buyers aren’t buying, amid job security fears. And sellers can’t sell their homes, due to the depressed economy and market. And with the glut of unsold homes on the market and prices falling, homebuilders have no reason (and no money) to build any more. Toll says new home construction is at its lowest level in 50 years.
And profits are tanking. Analysts project a $0.30 per share first quarter loss for the company - but Toll is so concerned about the economy and uncertain about the market that it hasn’t even bothered to issue any guidance itself.
Others aren’t hanging around to participate in the carnage any more…
Insiders Are Bailing On This Builder
Recent SEC filings show that Dwight Schar, founder of NVR Inc. (NYSE: NVR) recently cashed in his housing chips, dumping 339,059 shares worth $139 million.
Smart move. He sold at an average price of $409.90 each. The stock’s current price is around $348.
He’s not the only one either. Four other company directors and the CEO have also been busily selling their holdings this month.
One razor sharp analyst called this spate of so-called “cluster selling” (which occurs during particularly weak periods) “a pretty bad signal” for investors (okay, so I’m giving that “Most Obvious Statement” award to him now).
Profit From The Housing Pain
With the National Association of Realtors announcing this morning that existing U.S. home sales defied projections for a rise and dropped by an annual 5.3% in January from December - the lowest since July 1997 - homebuilder stocks are getting knocked around again.
The median home price: Down 14.8% to $170,300 in January - the lowest price since March 2003. And 9.6 months worth of unsold housing inventory.
Whether this marks anything approaching a bottom or not remains to be seen. But in any event, homebuilders that have struggled to turn a profit over the past few years are now closer to going bust instead.
To combat the slide, homebuilders have dumped as much land as they can and trying to load up on cash instead. But in this market, that’s obviously coming at a loss. And when the assets run out… what then in a still-depressed market? Not to mention the debt that many companies have accumulated, due to excess leveraging during the boom times.
On a broad scale, you could take a look at playing the downside of sector ETFs like the SPDR S&P Homebuilders (NYSE: XHB) - already down 55% over the past year.
But if you want to look for downside in individual stocks, focus on ones whose debt-to-equity level is high and/or who are running low on cash. And when insiders are selling, that’s usually a good indication that you should do the same.
Best regards,
Martin Denholm
Related Articles:
$75 Billion To Help Fix The U.S. Housing Crisis
Fixing Today’s Crisis With Mass Economic Stimulus… But Will Asset Values Ever Recover?
If You’re Afraid To Invest, This Tip Can Help You Divide The Good Stocks From The Bad
How One Company's Groundbreaking "Cancer Blaster" Could Make You Rich
While the World Health Organization predicts 12 million people will develop cancer in 2009, this little-known company is fighting the surge with its amazing cancer-killing device...
Although most people know nothing about it, this "Cancer Blaster" has already saved thousands of people around the world... Like Ohio resident, Caroline Brubaker, who says "with just three, pain-free outpatient visits, I had my life back" or Richard Swanson of Arizona who ended up cancer-free after just 4 hours of treatment...
The best part is, the company recently discovered an extraordinary breakthrough that could go mainstream in a matter of days... Read the full details to find out how you can get in ahead of the event - and be on your way to booking truly incredible gains.
|
Comments
Due to the amount of comments we receive Smart Profits Report will not be able to respond to all questions. By submitting your comment you agree to adhere to our Comment Policy.
Got something to say?
