The Media Is In “Flu Frenzy”… Here’s How To Invest Amid A Panic
Thursday, April 30, 2009
by Marc Lichtenfeld, Senior Analyst, Smart Profits Report
As the Smart Profits Report’s resident health care specialist, you can imagine how many calls and e-mails I’ve received regarding the swine flu outbreak.
So here’s my take on the issue - the perspective, the hype, the prevention, and how to deal with the story…
Let’s start with the broad public health issue…
Flu Facts… And Some Much-Needed Perspective
While swine flu is spreading and certainly has potential to become a very serious situation (as does any flu outbreak) if it continues, comparatively speaking, that isn’t the case at the moment.
Consider that the mortality rate of this flu is significantly lower than other outbreaks. For example, avian flu killed 61% of infected patients. The SARS death rate was 10%. And so far, swine flu has resulted in deaths of 7% of patients.
And then there’s “normal,” everyday flu, which causes the death of between 250,000 and 500,000 people around the world each year. Roughly 36,000 of those are Americans. And so far this year, approximately 12,000 Americans have already died from “normal” flu.
But the media machine doesn’t talk about that…
Crank Up The Hype Machine
The media is doing what it usually does - over-hyping the issue and whipping everyone into a panic. Face masks and hand sanitizers are flying off the shelves. And it’s not just in America either. In Egypt, the government ordered the slaughter of ALL pigs in the country. How’s that for reactionary?
People are frightened of a 1918-type pandemic that killed between 20 million and 40 million people. But it’s important to realize that this was before the invention of a modern healthcare system and many medicines that now treat flu or ancillary infections.
In addition, some news was censored at the time, due to World War I. People didn’t have access to the necessary, simple information that they could have used to protect themselves and their communities.
About the only voice of reason has come from President Obama, who reminded us what our mothers have told us for years - wash your hands frequently and cover your mouth when you cough or sneeze.
The Real Way To Build Real Wealth
Even if the swine flu outbreak becomes more serious, this is not an investing theme. “Five Stocks For The Swine Flu Pandemic” may be an attention-grabbing headline, but it’s not going to create real wealth.
As Karim noted here on Tuesday, any share price moves related to swine flu are likely to be short-lived.
That goes for a biotech company like Biocryst (Nasdaq: BCRX), which currently has an anti-flu therapy in clinical trials. It applies to Gilead Sciences (Nasdaq: GILD), which receives a royalty on Tamiflu. And it even goes for Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT), which can’t restock masks and hand sanitizers fast enough.
No, to build real wealth, you need to follow the same sound investment principles as always, regardless of any highly publicized short-term events.
That means employing investment strategies like covered calls, LEAPS, and put-selling that will generate low-risk, high reward profits in a market-beating, crowd-beating way.
It also means owning a diversified portfolio of strong companies like Psychiatric Solutions (Nasdaq: PSYS), which Karim recommended in the Xcelerated Profits Report (XPR) at $14.30 on April 16 and is already up 34%.
Or companies like Calgon Carbon Corp (NYSE: CCC) and Robbins & Myers (NYSE: RBN), both of which I also recommended in XPR. The stocks are up 35% in two months and 29% in one month, respectively.
So like the President and your mother told you… wash your hands and take reasonable precautions to stay healthy. But don’t change your portfolio or investing style in reaction to swine flu. If you do, you’ll likely wind up feeling sick to your stomach.
Marc Lichtenfeld
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we trade on line but we don’t know how to play the cover calls and short games.