Inverse ETFs: How To Profit From The Bear Market Trap
Thursday, March 26, 2009
Guest Editorial by Nathan Slaughter, Editor, The Street Authority
Editor’s Note: The first 10 weeks of 2009 was one of the worst periods in stock market history, as Dow shares dived around 25%. But with stocks having bounced back strongly over the past couple of weeks and recaptured almost all those losses, where are we headed next? The majority of economists think this is a dangerous bear market rally that could trap unsuspecting investors. So we’ve invited The Street Authority back to look at an investment vehicle that produced some outstanding returns during the downturn: Inverse ETFs. Here’s Nathan Slaughter with the details…
Martin Denholm, Managing Editor, Smart Profits Report
Beware The Bear Market Trap
Naturally, most investors are hoping that the current stock market rally will hold and we’ll embark on another bull run.
But what if it doesn’t? After all, this could easily just be a bear market rally. And bull markets rarely begin with a bear market rally and head straight higher.
It makes sense to hedge against a renewed decline. Here’s why smart investors are doing so using inverse ETFs. Read on to find out what they are, how they work, and why you should consider adding one or two to your portfolio in order to protect it…
ETFs: A Safer, More Effective Way To Short The Market
Just a few years ago, investors who wanted to profit from a market/stock downturn had to borrow shares from their broker to short the asset in question. But today, betting against banks, small-cap stocks, or even entire market averages, is just one convenient ticker symbol away.
You can short the market by using an inverse exchange-traded fund (ETF).
And while I’m generally an investor who subscribes to the fact that stocks ultimately rise and produce solid, long-term gains, there are certain times when using inverse ETFs can be very appealing - particularly in the current market environment.
Exchange Traded Funds: A Brief Overview
Before we talk about the hedging advantages of inverse ETFs, let’s quickly review what ETFs are, and how they work…
- Exchange-traded funds are securities that closely resemble index funds, but are more flexible because you can buy and sell them during the day, just like common stocks.
- ETFs give investors a convenient way to purchase a broad basket of securities in a single transaction, offering the convenience of a stock along with the diversification of a mutual fund.
- From a humble start in the early 1990s, the ETF industry has exploded, particularly over the past several years. There are now over 700 ETFs, with $450 billion in assets.
And the advantages? ETFs boast several major ones over mutual funds and common stocks…
- Better diversification
- More flexibility
- Lower costs
- More liquidity
- Tax efficiency
Going Short The Smart Way With Inverse ETFs
Inverse ETFs (or short ETFs) are designed to move in the opposite direction of an underlying index. That means you profit when the benchmark tanks. The lower the underlying asset goes, the higher these funds advance.
Perfect for a bear market like this one.
Think of inverse ETFs as a type of insurance policy for your portfolio. Investing a modest amount in one of them can be a useful way to hedge against market declines, or protect your profits in certain asset classes.
And when an index or stock heads south (as we’ve seen many do with a vengeance recently), an inverse fund can help soften the blow - and in some cases, even generate enormous profits.
For example, on September 30, 2008, four days before the Dow went below 10,000, I sent a special newsflash to my ETF Authority readers identifying 14 securities that could skyrocket as the market heads south.
*Source: Bloomberg. Total returns from 9/30/08 - 3/5/09
As you can see, most of the inverse ETF have done exactly what they were designed to do in this rough market. And it doesn’t stop there…
Double Your Money with Inverse ETFs
Some ETFs can even return double the inverse of the underlying security. For example, if you buy shares of the ProShares UltraShort S&P 500 (NYSE: SDS) and the S&P 500 declines by 5%, SDS gains 10%. (Keep in mind that these funds compound daily, so if you invest for longer, the returns won’t line up exactly).
So how are these ultra-short funds able to double the inverse performance of indexes? Simple… by using leverage. The math doesn’t always work out exactly, but you can usually expect it to return double the inverse within a reasonable range.
The trade-off, however, is that these funds can be incredibly volatile - and if you’re wrong, you lose twice as much. So only consider going ultra-short if you have the stomach for it.
Why You Haven’t Missed Out on Short ETFs…
You may think you’ve missed the boat on short ETFs… but think again.
With the market coming off depressing lows, the current rally may simply be a “dead cat bounce” (which have been known to soar), as the market attempts to form a new bottom.
With this in mind, you may want to consider adding an inverse fund or two to help smooth out some of this unprecedented market volatility.
Good Investing!
Nathan Slaughter
Chief Investment Strategist, The ETF Authority (StreetAuthority.com)
P.S. If you’d like to learn more about how to use ETFs to generate profits in any kind of market, check out my ETF Authority newsletter by visiting this link.
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