Will Congress Say “Yes, We Can” To A New $825 Billion Stimulus Package?
Thursday, January 15, 2009
by Martin Denholm, Managing Editor, Smart Profits Report
and Marc Lichtenfeld, Senior Analyst & Healthcare Specialist, Smart Profits Report
Dear Smart Profits Report Reader,
“Yes we can,” as incoming president Barack Obama famously declared in his presidential victory speech.
Head down the road to The Capitol and we’ll need to modify that to, “Yes, we might,” as lawmakers in Congress debate an $825 billion economic stimulus package.
Stuffed with $275 billion worth of tax cuts for both businesses and consumers, this new proposal also has $550 billion earmarked for spending on healthcare, infrastructure, and education.
But it wouldn’t be Congress without some hearty waffling. And while Democratic leaders unveiled the bill today, expect those numbers to fluctuate as the plan works its way through the Capitol. The goal is to get an agreement in place for Obama to sign by mid February.
And speaking multi-billion dollar aid packages…
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Please, Sir… Can We Have Some More?
It looks like lawmakers are going to have to set aside a few more pennies for Bank of America (NYSE: BAC).
Having already received $25 billion from the Treasury’s Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP), BAC shares got crushed today amid fresh concerns that losses at Merrill Lynch (which Bank of America bought out) will prove too much for the bank to handle by itself. Government officials are currently mulling over another financial aid package similar to the one it threw to Citigroup (NYSE: C) in November.
This could include a new cash injection from the Treasury’s $700 billion financial bailout package, or government guarantees against losses on bad loans, the earlier version of which was broken down buy our Guest Editor William Patalon III in Banks, Bailouts and Your Money. Both Obama and Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke have made strong calls this week for the second $350 billion of the $700 billion total to be immediately made available.
According to the Wall Street Journal, the government and Bank of America were close to reaching an agreement on Wednesday evening. And while the bank has so far refused to comment on the story, it should make for an interesting fourth quarter and full-year earnings conference call next Tuesday.
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European Central Bank Swings Its Monetary Axe Again
Hot on the heels of the Federal Reserve, Bank of England, and other central banks, the European Central Bank (ECB), which controls monetary policy for the Eurozone nations, today chopped its own interest rate by a further 0.5%. The benchmark lending rate of 2% now equals the low from 2005.
The move comes after a shock 0.75% cut in December, as the Eurozone economy faces its first recession since the euro currency was adopted 10 years ago.
And Wednesday’s report that showed a 7.7% annualized slump in Eurozone industrial production in November seems to have sealed the deal for another cut. This despite ECB president Jean-Claude Trichet hinting recently that the bank may have left rates unchanged this month in order to first gauge the impact of the previous cut.
Barclays Capital says fourth quarter Eurozone industrial production is expected to contract by 3.6% - the worst performance since 1975 - with quarterly GDP growth shrinking by 1.5%.
Unlike some other central banks, though, the ECB’s staunch focus on controlling inflation has caused it to lag its counterparts in terms of monetary policy. This means it has more wiggle room available for further, meaningful rate cuts in the face of an expected deflationary period later this year. This strategy was used by India late last October when it cut its overnight lending rate from 9% to 8% to stave of a recession. To learn more, read India Wields Its Monetary Policy Axe…
We wrap up today with news just in from our healthcare expert Marc Lichtenfeld, who’s spent this week at the JP Morgan Healthcare Conference in San Francisco…
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Biotech Lovefest In San Francisco
The only way to describe the action around Genentech (NYSE: DNA) and Medivation (Nasdaq: MDVN) at this year’s conference is a veritable lovefest.
While neither company dished out any new information, they both simply reinforced why investors should be bullish. The crowd was absolutely buzzing after Medivation CEO David Hung spoke, with a throng of people following him down the hall like paparazzi trying to get near Angelina and Brad.
Shares took a hit today, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see increased institutional interest in the stock over the coming months.
Accuray (Nasdaq: ARAY) also gave a solid presentation, which described its business. When pressed for answers regarding whether the firm is seeing a downturn in capital spending by hospitals and cancer centers, the company said it would address that issue on its January 29 earnings call.
Before I sign off and head to the airport, a quick word on a brand-new feature that I’m starting in this month’s Xcelerated Profits Report newsletter.
It’s called “Xcelerated Small-Caps,” a regular monthly column, where I’ll focus on the small-cap stocks with the most explosive profit potential. As you may know, small-caps have historically been among the first to lead the economy out of recessions, so it’s a good time to feature a dedicated small-cap column. Well-chosen small-caps offer an excellent chance to claim significant profits - and we want to be positioned to take advantage.
In addition, this feature adds even more diversity to an already pretty diverse newsletter. I just penned my first recommendation for the upcoming February issue and if you’d like to find out how to join the XPR team, check out this link.
Talk to you again soon.
Martin Denholm & Marc Lichtenfeld
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