Tune Out The Retail Doomsayers… These Firms Could Bust This Season’s Trend
December 3, 2008
Tuesday, December 2, 2008: Issue #579
by Martin Denholm, Managing Editor, The Smart Profits Report
It was no surprise to see last Friday’s newscasts feature the rather desperate, “running of the bulls” scenes, as herds of bargain-hungry consumers bulldozed into stores in search of hot deals.
And boy, the U.S. economy could certainly use the sales stimulation.
In contrast to consumers’ zest, the economy isn’t bulldozing anything… it’s staggering through a recession instead - one that started a year ago, according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.
The group says employment and income peaked in December 2007, with sales topping out in June. It said the deteriorating job market is a key cause of the recession, as the U.S. shed 1.2 million jobs through the first 10 months of 2008 - with 325,000 more layoffs projected for November.
So what does that mean for the already beleaguered retail sector this season - and are there any firms that could prosper? Here are a couple to consider…
Do Your Patriotic Duty: Spend Like A Champ!
‘Tis the season to… well, spend. And in a credit-oriented nation, Americans again proved that they do that better than the rest. The National Retail Federation (NRF) says 172 million consumers hit the malls or logged on to buy goods over the extended Thanksgiving weekend - a 17% jump from the same period in 2007. And ShopperTrak says “Black Friday” sales rose 3% to $10.6 billion over “B.F. 2007,” with the average consumer spending $372 - up 7.2% from a year ago.
Granted, a 3% sales rise isn’t spectacular, but it’s not terrible for a nation with a pathetic savings rate, a 3.7% year-over-year inflation rate in October, and 1.2 million job losses. I’m sure America’s battered banks are wondering exactly where these guys are getting their money from - and whether they can pay it back.
Retailers are doing their best to help - and potentially at their own expense…
The Retail Sector’s Vicious Cycle
Many still predict a rough time for retailers, with the NRF predicting a measly 2.2% rise in holiday shopping sales - the lowest since 2002. Retailers are compelled to offer eye-popping deals to cash-strapped consumers, but they can’t sustain the bargains forever, for risk of eroding their profit margins too much.
That could result in flat sales and profit growth, with some analysts suggesting that it could also lead to more bankruptcies, following electronics giant Circuit City, Linens n’ Things, and The Sharper Image. In turn, that could drive unemployment even higher.
Already, a major online trend is providing some clues…
When High Traffic Meets Falling Sales
The good news: Online traffic on “Cyber Monday” (the Monday following Thanksgiving, which traditionally kicks off the online shopping season) climbed by 10% over the same day in 2007, according to Pricegrabber.com. Other firms have also reported heavy activity, with Target (NYSE: TGT) expecting its web traffic to jump 40% this season.
The bad news: Online research firm comScore says web sales are down 4% so far this season and will remain the same as last year throughout the November-December compared at $29.2 billion. That’s prime evidence that deep discounts could squash profit margins. But essentially, retailers have little choice.
But what choices do investors have?
“It’s Wal-Mart Time”
A few weeks ago, my colleague Marc Lichtenfeld gave you three companies that could be set to buck the gloomy retail trend this season.
One of them was sector bellwether Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT), whose CEO Lee Scott proudly proclaims, “It’s Wal-Mart time. This is the kind of environment that Sam Walton built this company for.”
He’s right. As consumers go all-out to dig up value, Wal-Mart is among those discount-oriented firms set up to not only weather this season’s storm, but to profit from it. Check out Marc’s article for more details, plus his thoughts on Kohl’s (KSS) and Dollar Tree (Nasdaq: DLTR).
I’m going to throw another one into the mix - The TJX Companies (NYSE: TJX) - a company I actually highlighted here a year ago…
The Outlook For TJX
At the time, the stock traded around $28.50 and bounced to $32 by early February 2008, followed by a 52-week high of $37.52 in August.
Since then, however, shares have sunk back to the $20 area, as a combination of high oil prices at the time stifled consumer spending, while the U.S. dollar (the company also operates overseas, including Britain and Ireland), economy and stock market slumped.
Despite this, though, the firm reported a 4% and 3% sales rise in August and September respectively, compared with August-September 2007. That’s a testament to its business model - the company offers fashionable, quality goods (some of which it buys from other higher-end retailers’ excess inventory) at attractive prices.
However, total third quarter profit came in at $235.8 million ($0.54 per share), compared with $249.5 million ($0.54 per share) in Q3 2007 - a 5.5% drop, due to the negative economic climate and an exchange rate hit. Over the first nine months of 2008, though, TJX earned $629.9 million ($1.42 per share) over the $470.6 million ($1.00 per share) from January-September 2007.
TJX pegs fourth quarter EPS between $0.58 and $0.62 - lower than the $0.67 in Q4 2007 and the $0.72 estimates, but $2.07 to $2.11 per share in fiscal 2009, compared with $1.68 for this year.
Also, the company’s T.J. Maxx and Marshall’s stores could be prominent destinations for bargain-hunting shoppers this season. The fact that The Gap (NYSE: GPS) posted better than expected third quarter results could bode well for TJX. Other positive factors include the U.S. dollar strengthening a little and Card Activation Technologies settling its litigation against TJX.
Ultimately, fourth-quarter retail earnings will tell the full story of this holiday period
And while the overall gloom shrouding the retail sector could drag successful, bargain-oriented companies down with the pack in the short-term, provided their business models lure in discount-hungry consumers this season, they could end up having the final word.
Best regards,
Martin Denholm
 Today’s Smart Profits Notes ~ With the U.S. economy having been in recession for a year, according to the NBER, it’s already one of the longest downturns since the Great Depression era in the 1930s. Only two of the previous 10 post-Depression recessions lasted as long as a year. ~ Staples (Nasdaq: SPLS), the world’s largest office supply store, just released its third quarter report, which shows mixed results. While its net income fell to $156.7 million down from $274.5 million in Q3 2007, the company still beat profit expectations. It came as revenue fell by as much as 8% in North American stores, but Staples is staying in the game by reducing capital spending and taking on Dutch distributor Corporate Express NV, which it hopes will eventually counter lower sales in the U.S. and Canada. Related Articles at: www.smartprofitsreport.com: Black Friday 2007: Here’s A Retailer That Could Profit From The Madness Of The Holiday Season Circuit City Blows A Fuse… But Here’s Why Its Bankruptcy Doesn’t Spell Holiday Doom For Retailers |
Don’t Just Wear It… Buy It: This Commodity Is Inching Towards An Excellent Buy Level
December 1, 2008
Monday, December 1, 2008
by Lee Lowell, Futures Options & Commodities Specialist, Smart Profits ReportÂ
When I last wrote to you two weeks ago, I noted that the majority of the commodity markets that we follow were entering into a consolidation phase, with the possibility of bullish action to come.Â
Well, we were right on most of those market, but some have stubbornly continued their bearish slide.
“Route 66″ For OilÂ
When oil prices rocketed to $147 in July, you’d have been committed for suggesting that the price would dip back down to the $50 per barrel level - a 66% slump.Â
But the big news is that oil has wiggled its way under the $50 a barrel mark - a price we haven’t seen on a front-month futures contract since May 2005.
The current futures contract (January 2009) hit a low price of $48.25 a barrel on November 21. In these tough economic times, the lower price of oil provides a much-needed bright spot for consumers, as the national average price per gallon of gasoline is around $1.82.Â
For the moment, crude oil is still trading in tandem with the stock market in that it moves higher when stocks go up (as it did for part of last week), and moves lower when stocks decline.Â
The OPEC oil cartel held an informal meeting this weekend, where the ministers opted to hold off on production cuts until their formal meeting later this month. The cartel believes the ideal price of oil should be around $75 a barrel, as that would greatly help their economies.Â
We’ll see what kind of power the cartel still wields in these markets, but unless it makes dramatic cuts, it looks like the price of oil is at the mercy of normal market forces.Â
Natural Gas At $5 = BuyÂ
We mentioned last time that the natural gas futures had hit a level just above the $6.000/mmbtu area - a level we haven’t seen since February 2005.
Since then, the price is still waffling around those lows, but hasn’t traded below them. Right now, we’re still above the $6.600 per mmbtu level, as the commodity continues to search for some direction.Â
We still believe that if natural gas slips to the low $5.000 per mmbtu range, it could prove to be a great buying opportunity. Hopefully, we’ll get that chance again over the next few weeks or months, but the winter season should influence the price.Â
December Dip For The Metals
Not a good start to December for gold and silver.Â
Having enjoyed some bullish action last week - and looking set to finally turn the corner and start the next upward run - both metals hit a brick wall today, and have been pounded back down to almost the same levels from where they began the move last week.Â
From a $90 per ounce climb for gold and $1.50 per ounce rise for silver, gold has handed back about $45, while silver had shed $1.10.
It seems traders are only willing to hold onto gains for a very short period of time, as they’re never sure when more bad news will hit the newswires. Still, we still believe the metals can regain the bullish momentum, but it might not happen until after the holidays.
Close To A Major Buying Opportunity On Cotton
As for the other markets, our last edition focused on the cotton market, since it was getting very close to long-term support levels.
The lowest price for cotton came in 2001 when the futures contracts tagged the area of $.28/pound. This was based on information spanning back to 1979.Â
On November 20, the current front-month cotton futures contract (March 2009) dipped under the $.40 per pound level and has since climbed to its current level of $.47 per pound.Â
We’d like to see if it will hold here, but if cotton decides to move lower again, keep the $.25 to $.30 per pound area in sight as a potential huge buying opportunity.Â
Until next time…
Â
Lee Lowell
Sphere: Related ContentWith “Black Friday” Just Hours Away, Here Are Some Retailers You Can Put In Your Portfolio
November 27, 2008
Thursday, November 27, 2008: Special Thanksgiving Day Edition
by The Smart Profits Report TeamÂ
Well, how do you feel?
Having moved here from England in 2000, this will be my 9th Thanksgiving (boy, time flies when you’re writing about finance and investing) and if the previous eight are any indication, I can safely say that I’ll be in a turkey-stuffed, wine-induced haze.
Here’s hoping this message finds you enjoying time with the people you love and taking a well-earned break from the rigors of everyday life.
Before heading out of the office for the holiday, the team and I spent some time thinking about the most important issues and events facing Americans at the moment. And given that you’ve hopefully got a few days respite from your regular routine, we decided to compile a few of our most important messages for you, so you can use this time to position yourself for the next few weeks and months.
And at this time of year, one topic immediately sprang to mind…
Hours Away From The Official Start Of The Retail Bloodbath?
So much for a “Recovery Day.”
In just a few hours, many Americans will scoff at the idea of using their extra day off to sleep in, or recover at all. Instead, they’ll decide to do something quite mad: Wake up in the middle of the night and head out to their local mall.
They’ll do so in hopes of grabbing so-called “doorbuster” deals and special offers to kick off “Black Friday.”
It’s a term used to describe the day on which retailers hope to move their balance sheets “into the black” and marks the start of a critical holiday shopping period that typically accounts for about half their annual revenues.
But retailers are set for an almighty struggle this year. The beaten-up economy, battered stock market portfolios, soaring unemployment, and higher inflation have sent fearful consumers reeling. Many have suddenly become very budget-conscious, which doesn’t bode well for retailers - particularly higher-end ones.
It’s a subject that our Senior Analyst Marc Lichtenfeld wrote about recently - and tipped readers off to three retailers that could buck the trend this season. Check it out below…
We’ve covered a lot of important ground in the Smart Profits Report over the past few months, focusing on the economic fallout from the financial crisis and the fragile state of the stock market. In case you missed any of it, we’ve also compiled a few of our other most popular articles for you, which focus on ways to get ahead of the competition and highlight the best opportunities to buy quality investments for deeply discounted prices.
It’s our way of saying “Happy Thanksgiving” to you - and thanks for sticking with us throughout these turbulent times. We also invite you to kick things up a notch, too…so be sure to check out our “Profit Opportunity” and “Premium Content” below.
Enjoy the rest of your holiday.
 Martin Denholm
Managing Editor, Smart Profits Report
Â
Since the market hit the skids, I’ve been a big advocate of compiling stock watchlists to keep on your radar. That way, when it’s time to pull the trigger, you’ll have all the resources and information right there at your fingertips.
All you’ll need to do is take a deep breath and fire. So with that in mind, here are some retailers you might want to start thinking about… Full Story
 * * * * *
U.S. Stocks Will Be A Worthwhile Steal
Despite the seemingly bleak outlook on U.S. stocks at the moment, you don’t need to buy shares of Accra Brewery Company, Tunisair, or Diner’s Club del Ecuador to have a prayer of making a profit. Instead, look for stocks that could rebound in 2009.
There are so many that have suffered a beating, the list could be extensive. And when you do, first look at the biggest and best companies in their fields - ones who’ve experienced market downturns before and have stood the test of time… Full Story
 * * * * *
 Gold Is Ready To Run Again… Make Sure You Watch This Indicator And Get On Board
The market always anticipates the future. So while the economy may be heading south for a while, and the Grinch will doubtless make multiple visits this holiday season, the market has already discounted this to some extent.
 But with gold, Christmas has come early. You’ll know what to expect when the market retests its low - and if you see the VIX jump to over 65, let that gold bug roam free… Full Story
 Profit Opportunity: Speaking of gold, if you’re ready to take your investing in this area to a higher level, check this out…
As the article above mentions, precious metals are very undervalued at the moment. This is unusual, given that gold and silver typically thrive when the economy is struggling.
Don’t be fooled, though… they won’t stay that way for much longer. As with the rest of the market, we have what’s likely to be a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity on tap…
One of the top researchers with our colleagues at The Oxford Club has just unearthed an extraordinary find: $12.5 billion in silver that has literally been abandoned for the past 15 years. Given silver’s value as “real money,” this could be a wealth-saving discovery for investors seeking safety from the worldwide financial meltdown. And that’s just for starters. Click here to read the full story
* * * * *
How To Find Good Stocks To Invest In
Wouldn’t it be wonderful if there were a simple investment formula such as, “Buy any stock with a price-to-earnings ratio under X or a price-to-book under Y?” Alas, nothing worthwhile in life is that easy. But there is one number you can look at that will help you find good stocks selling at discount prices. It’s called the Price-to-Cash-Flow and it’s one of my favorite ratios to examine. And there’s a simple reason I like to use it. Full Story
Sphere: Related ContentWith A Changing Of The Political Guard, Now Is The Time To Harness The Profit Potential Of Wind Power
November 26, 2008
Tuesday, November 25, 2008: Issue #578Â
Guest Editorial by Andy Obermueller, The Street Authority
Editor’s Note: Today, we invite our friends from The Street Authority back for a guest editorial. With President-elect Barack Obama poised to take office, many believe that it could herald a fresh round of political support and funding for renewable energy resources. One of the most prominent is wind power. I’ll let Andy Obermueller fill you in on all the enlightening details - and how to profit from this potentially lucrative natural resource. Have a great Thanksgiving holiday.
Martin Denholm, Managing Editor, Smart Profits Report
Windy Ways
The winds of change are coming…
Not only does that include Barack Obama taking office in a little under two months time, it could also include a natural energy resource receiving an increasing amount of attention.
Last year was a breakthrough year for the U.S. wind industry, with total wind-power capacity rising by 45%. That accounted for 30% of all new power production.
And if you think wind made impressive advances when an oilman was in the White House, just wait until President Barack Obama takes office.
During the presidential election, Obama made renewable and alternative energy a key campaign issue, sounding off controversially against the continued use of coal-fired power plants.
“If somebody wants to build a coal-powered plant, they can,” he said during the campaign. “It’s just that it will bankrupt them.”
Global… And Growing At An Accelerated Pace
Recent legislation mandates that at least 15% of U.S. electricity come from green sources by 2020. But under the Obama administration, if all goes according to plan, expect to see calls for 10% of our electricity to come from green sources by 2012 and 25% by 2025. (This tracks with recent legislation mandating 15% by 2020).
The U.S isn’t alone in its call to clean up the environment this way. China’s new energy plans, released in September 2007, included a push to generate 10% of its power from wind by 2010 and 15% by 2015.
And the EU has mandated that 20% of its energy comes from renewable resources like wind by 2020. In some places, such as Denmark, that goal is already a reality. And across Europe, efforts are already well under way to ensure that wind turbines account for roughly one-third of all new generating capacity installed in the next few years. That means providing electricity for 90 million people by 2010.
The wind power movement isn’t limited to large countries like China or to rich countries like the United States. It’s global.
North Africa, the Middle East and certain South American countries have all gotten into the act. The first two regions increased wind energy installations by 42% last year.
And a recent study showed that Egypt, with its strong wind activity in the Suez Gulf, could host 20,000 megawatts of wind farms.
And then there’s Brazil, which has 14 projects totaling 107 megawatts scheduled for completion by the end of the year, and another 900+ megawatts slated for 2009.
This Investment Has Both Power And Potential
And it’s not just governments that are embracing wind power. Even oil billionaire T. Boone Pickens is getting behind this alternative energy trend. He’s wagering $12 billion on an area spanning the Texas panhandle that, when finished, will be the world’s largest wind farm. He’s already ordered 667 turbines from General Electric.
Why has this legendary oil investor hitched his future to wind? Because he knows that this alternative energy source is our best shot at reducing our dependence on foreign oil. In one year, a single 3-megawatt wind turbine produces as much energy as 12,000 barrels of oil - without consuming any natural resources or emitting any pollution or greenhouse gases.
The good news, as Pickens points out, is that the United States is the Saudi Arabia of wind power.
The Great Plains is home to the greatest wind energy potential in the world, and Pickens envisions a string of wind facilities stretching from Texas to North Dakota capable of producing 20% of the nation’s electricity.
But right now, even despite these huge advances, wind power still accounts for a tiny fraction of the world’s energy needs: About 1% in the United States and 1.3% globally.
That’s all set to change, though…
Where Wind Energy Is Going Next
According to the Department of Energy, wind energy could generate 20% of U.S. electricity by 2030. Compared to today, that’s a 40-bagger industry-wide. This means that a few of the best and the brightest wind stocks could easily rise 100-to-1 before it’s all over.
You can do the math. Unless someone discovers the fountain of youth, I doubt you’ll find any industry in the world with as much growth potential.
Check out these other wind facts…
- Wind energy grew 667% between 2000 and 2008, from 2,554 megawatts of installed U.S. capacity to 19,600. In that time, in fact, the United States became the world leader in wind power generation, outpacing Germany.
Â
- A 2005 NASA study pegged the power of the global wind supply at 72 terawatts, or roughly five times global power consumption. That means there is virtually no limit to the degree from which the world can harness this 100% clean, 100% free and 100% renewable resource. It’s only a matter of time, and the clock is ticking.
Â
- The demand for wind power isn’t only strong and globally pervasive, in most nations, it’s been written into law.
Â
- Nearly three-dozen U.S. states that have mandated that utilities buy an increasing amount of their electricity from renewable resources. They literally have to buy wind turbines. And that legal obligation is worthwhile, too. As part of the recent $700 billion TARP bailout, Congress extended a $0.02 per kilowatt-hour production tax credit. That means the cash goes straight to their bottom line instead of to Uncle Sam. Both these factors will continue to provide a strong incentive for wind power.
Â
The changing of the White House guard takes place in less than two months’ time, with Obama practically vowing to turn the White House “green.” Coal power is out. Wind power is in. And the wind industry will likely be the focal point of government mandated energy initiatives for the next few decades.
We’ve pinpointed a select group of FOUR investments that will benefit the most when an unprecedented infusion of government cash is pumped into this industry.
These companies are immune to nearly all outside economic forces and have their sales orders on file in amounts that could set them - and you - up for years to come. Click here to find out how to profit from wind power.
Best regards,
Andy Obermueller
Related Articles at: www.smartprofitsreport.com:
Alternative Energy Sources Are Growing Fast
Renewable Energy Resources: How To Profit From Rising Oil Prices & A New Boom In Renewable Fuels
Alternative Energy Sources: How To Profit From The World’s Carbon Dioxide Dilemma
Sphere: Related ContentWe’re Not Giving Any Thanks To This Market… But This Indicator Can Forecast Its Next Move
November 24, 2008
Monday, November 24, 2008
by Jim Stanton, Technical & Quantitative Analyst, Smart Profits Report
With Thanksgiving just a few days away, investors are still just as scared as turkeys when they see the guy with the axe coming.
If this month closes the same way it’s performed over the past few months, we’ll be scratching around looking for crumbs of positive data. Yes, the markets have rallied a few times, but it’s proven to be nothing more than a short-term tease.
Having been on vacation for a couple of weeks, my last edition of “Sector Watch” on November 3 featured an hourly chart of the S&P 500. It showed that the index was probably in a bearish consolidation pattern that would eventually resolve itself to the downside.
I noted that the S&P’s rally should run out of steam on either side of the next resistance levels - 986 points and 1,044. Sure enough, having rallied to 1,007 the very next day, that proved to be the high for the month - and the index has stumbled downward ever since.
So where are we now?
Want To Go Bottom-Fishing? Good Luck!
Over the past few weeks, we’ve seen broad-based, relentless selling, with most sectors trading at or near new lows for the year.
Late last week, the S&P 500 reached my minimum downside target around 765, before the indexes reversed course on Friday and rallied sharply into the close.
In fact, all the major stock indexes reached my minimum downside targets as of Friday. While that sounds bad, it does mean that the correction may be ending.
That said, this is a very dangerous market. Trying to pick a market bottom is a challenge at the best of times, but in this climate, trying to do so is a real risk if you don’t know what you’re doing.
So while I’m seeing some positive signs, the smart play is to wait for more significant buy signals.
Right now, it’s too early to tell when, and at what level, these buy signals could be triggered, given that the indexes only made new lows last Friday. But a close above 835 on the S&P 500 would set up a half-day buy signal.
That goes for individual sectors, too…
Looking For “Black Friday” Bargains
Most of the sector indexes followed the broader market’s lead in making new lows last week. And because none of them have yet triggered any buy signals, it’s a challenge trying to nail anything down with much certainty.
Rather than sit on the fence, though, there were a handful of sector indexes that didn’t make new lows last week and are at least showing some temporary relative strength. If the market gets going to the upside, they might be the best place to start.
Specifically, we’re talking about…
Amex Airline Index (AMEX: $XAL)
Amex Oil Index (AMEX: $XOI)
Amex Pharmaceutical Index (AMEX: $DRG)
Gold and Silver Index (Philadelphia: $XAU)
Of these four indexes, the best-looking chart is the Philadelphia Gold and Silver Index ($XAU)…
Here’s When You’ll Know That Gold And Silver Are Heading Higher
As you can see, the index rallied sharply last Friday and the downtrend line, drawn off the July highs, is around the 101 level.
And because the 50-day moving average (the red line) is sitting right on top of the downtrend line, that level has more significance.Â
So what does this mean?
Simply put, a couple of closes above the 101 area should lead to higher prices.
Make A List… Check It Twice… And Watch The Spread
If you want to get a good gauge of the stock market’s direction, rather than trying to pinpoint tops and bottoms, I find it’s more fruitful to look at the following spread chart.
If you’ve read my previous columns, you may remember me referring to it before. It basically plots the difference between the Nasdaq 100 (^NDX) and the S&P 500 (^SPX) and is often a leading indicator of market action. Here’s the latest action…Â
As you can see, the indexes rallied from mid July to mid August (the spread chart coincides with the August highs) before embarking on the vicious new downtrend that we’ve endured recently.
Generally, when the market is bullish, the Nasdaq 100 will outperform the S&P 500 and the spread will move higher. In bearish markets, like the one we’ve experienced lately, the spread moves lower.
Here’s what the spread tells us at the moment…
I’ve drawn a regression channel from the August highs. As shown, the top of the channel coincides with the 20-day moving average around the 330 area. If the spread (the Nasdaq 100 minus the S&P 500) can close above this level a couple of times, the indexes should move higher.
That’s it for this edition. All that remains is to wish you and your family a very Happy Thanksgiving.
Jim
Sphere: Related ContentLay The Blame On Market Speculators
November 20, 2008
Thursday, November 20, 2008: Issue #577Â
by Paul Moore, Contributing Editor & Technology Specialist, Smart Profits Report
You’d expect market speculators and financial commentators to have discussed the many reasons for the stock market’s selloff lately. After all, waffling is what they do best!
The bug seems to have crept to the onlooking investing public too though, with everyone becoming an overnight expert and tossing their two cents into the mix.
But really, when it comes right down to it, alongside widespread fear, there are two main factors responsible for the moves:
- Accelerating & Decelerating Rates Of Profit Growth
- Supply & Demand
Usually, the two work in tandem because changes in fundamentals drive the demand for a stock. However, this hasn’t been the case over the last two months, as extraneous events have caused liquidations.
Market Speculators Jump On Bad News Gleefully
On Wednesday, market speculators jumped gleefully on reports that 98% of the daily volume fell on the downside as another torrent of negative data pointed towards more economic turmoil.
The latest batch of badness meant that it was no surprise to see the markets react by tumbling yet another 400 points - and crashing right down through yet another support level.
The Fed is now projecting unemployment rates of around 8.5% by the end of 2008. Of course, if that holds true, the vicious cycle of bad news will continue.
So what are the pros doing?
Quite simply, they’re taking steps to prepare for a long, drawn-out bear market. But while they’re willing to follow their own advice, few are actually willing to risk their reputations as negative sell side commentary scares investors away.
Want Someone To Blame? Blame Market Speculators And Television Yap
Market speculators, both market speculators and individual investors alike have good reasons for their nervousness, since unchecked supply is driving the market down, despite facts and data that should make a difference.
For example, take Friedman, Billings, and Ramsey’s (NYSE: FBR) announcement weeks ago that Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) was going to have to cut its iPhone production by 40%.
This interesting piece of speculation played into the stock’s dive from $110 to $80 over the last month. The sad part was that it was merely speculation, which a Digitimes article recently refuted, highlighting that Apple expects to produce eight million iPhones this quarter. That would render production levels flat, not cut.
The problem is that such positive news isn’t going to matter until CNBC stops publishing its incessant supply of bad news. But don’t expect that to happen until the January earnings season begins.
The fear generated by this kind of commentary is creating supply instead of reporting it. In the absence of support through fundamental upside surprises, stock buybacks and mergers, it’s hard for the market to find a bottom.
Thanks To Market Speculators, Technology Looks This Bad Even Though It Shouldn’t
Any market speculator or commentator worth his or her salt knows that late changes in profit growth expectations are what drive share prices higher or lower. And in the last quarter, despite relatively good technology results, there were enough guidance reductions to significantly alter the 10-year period profits.
A key part of the guidance reductions were due to the strengthening dollar - as I wrote about here on August 25. That, along with the confluence of the financial bankruptcies, credit crunch, and the beginning of the European rollover in demand, means there won’t be another leg down for estimate reductions.
While it would be nice to offer some magic formula to eradicate the problem, investors can’t do much to influence either supply or demand. And that means the best piece of advice I can give is to remind you that the forces at work in the near-term are not related to fundamentals. They’re simply a part of the bottoming process.
Put that aside, and you’ll be able to see that technology is as strong as ever.
Paul Moore
Â
Related Articles at: www.smartprofitsreport.com:
The Technology Sector Could Be A Diamond In A Rough Market
3 Safe Ways To Invest In Technology… Despite The US Economy And Fuzzy Math
The Dollar’s Gain Could Be Tech’s Loss
Sphere: Related ContentU.S. Stocks Will Be A Worthwhile Steal
November 18, 2008
Tuesday, November 18, 2008: Issue #576Â
by Marc Lichtenfeld, Senior Analyst & Healthcare Specialist, Smart Profits Report
Since the U.S. stocks as a whole peaked in October 2007, the world’s equity market capitalization has shrunk by 53%. If you’re counting at home, that’s $33 trillion.
- John Roque, Natixis Bleichroeder
They say that misery loves company, so if you’re too depressed to look at your brokerage account statements, maybe you can grab some consolation from knowing that investors all over the world share your pain.
In fact, some poor folks have it even worse. According to Bespoke Investment Group…
Iceland is down a staggering 90% this year.
Ukraine is off 76%.
Bulgaria is lower by 74%.
Over all, 51 countries have experienced worse market declines than the U.S.’s 44% tumble. So are there any winners at all amid this global mess? Actually, just three…
At First Glance, U.S. Stocks Can’t Compete With This Year’s (Very Short) List Of Winners
Only Ecuador, Tunisia and Ghana have posted gains in 2008. Which is why I’m pleased to announce my new investment service - The Ecuador, Tunisia, Ghana Trader (trademark pending).
I’m being facetious, of course. But the point is that there are investors out there who are so desperate to find a performing investment that they’re willing to consider just about everything.
At times like this, you’ll often hear folks confidently booming out the “Yeah, but this time, it’s different” line. I’ve long been an opponent of talk like this. And I’ll tell you why…
Why It Isn’t Different This Time… For U.S. Stocks Or Anywhere Else
During the dot.com era when those types of U.S. stocks were flying, I was routinely told that I “didn’t understand the new paradigm.”
And it wasn’t too long ago when the real estate market took off, and I was being called names for being so stupid for not borrowing cheap money to buy spec houses and home sites in so-called “can’t miss” places like Port St. Lucie, Florida - a city that now boasts the dubious honor of having more than 11% of the homes in the foreclosure process. Unemployment is also over 10% in the county.
But is it truly different this time?
Investors have endured and overcome a Civil War, two World Wars, and the Great Depression. But now, the government seems to be in the process of bailing out every poorly run business. In addition, we’ve got an incoming president that Wall Street knows little about yet, as well as a rapidly changing financial landscape.
U.S. Stocks Might Be Suffering, But It’s Not The First Time And It Won’t Be The Last
Don’t get me wrong; U.S. stocks are doing badly. And at first glance, the following information just seems to confirm investors’ worst fears. But read between the lines, and you should find reason for hope.
Dr. John P. Hussman, who runs the Hussman Funds, wrote a letter to shareholders explaining precisely why we’re not in uncharted territory. In fact, if the S&P 500 slides to 780, another 9% drop from current levels, the market would be in the lowest 20% of all historical market valuations. A drop to 700 on the S&P would represent the lowest 10% of historical valuations.
In other words, things are tough and could get worse, but the market has been here before. To read the whole piece, click here.
In the long run, I believe the way you will make money in the market is the way investors have done it for over 200 years - investing in businesses that grow earnings.
Don’t Pack Your Bags Just Yet… There’s Potential In U.S. Stocks Still
Despite the seemingly bleak outlook on U.S. stocks at the moment, you don’t need to buy shares of Accra Brewery Company, Tunisair, or Diner’s Club del Ecuador to have a prayer of making a profit.
Instead, look for stocks that could rebound in 2009. There are so many that have suffered a beating, the list could be extensive. And when you do, first look at the biggest and best companies in their fields - ones who’ve experienced market downturns before and have stood the test of time.
For example, consider Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC) in the financial sector.
Take a look at biotech giant Genentech (NYSE: DNA) in the healthcare sector.
Cast your eye over Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT) in the technology space.
And as the economy recovers, companies that should fare well include McDonald’s (NYSE: MCD), Caterpillar (NYSE: CAT), Costco (Nasdaq: COST), and ITT Corp. (NYSE: ITT).
Don’t neglect the small-cap market either, though. Small-cap stocks have a history of leading the market out of a downturn. You just need to be careful which ones you pick, as it can still be a volatile sector - particularly in a fragile market.
Companies with revolutionary products include Accuray (Nasdaq: ARAY), a long-term position in the Xcelerated Profits Report portfolio and ViroPharma (Nasdaq: VPHM), which is part of the portfolio in my small-cap healthcare service, Access (for more information on Access, call our VIP Services Team at: 888.570.9830 (within the U.S.) or 410.454.0498 (from overseas).
It’s Almost Time To Pick Up U.S. Stocks Again, Painful As It Might Be
Yeah, U.S. stocks are experiencing whiplash as the pain train barrels down the tracks at sharp bends at full speed. And like it or not, we’re all aboard for the ride.
It’s a bumpy and uncomfortable one, for sure. But it will eventually hit the brakes and pull into the station. And when the markets calm down and things return to some sense of normality again, you’ll be glad you invested in stocks that you’re familiar with, rather than exotic investments that are often more trouble than they’re worth.
My colleagues Karim, Jim, Lee and I have all been hammering home this point for a few months now. But it’s crucial that you don’t get wrapped up in the hysteria and make poor decisions now that you’ll pay for later.
Simply put, get ready to buy good stocks on the cheap. I know it’s scary now. But this climate won’t last forever and normal order will be restored. That has been the case for over 200 years.
And rest assured that no matter whether times are good or bad, stick with us here and we’ll help you every step of the way. Better yet, join us at the Xcelerated Profits Report, where we’ll not only explain various situations to you, but show you exactly how to profit from them with specific recommendations, too. We’ll get through this together. Just click this link for all the details.
Meantime, thank your lucky stars that you’re not overweight in Icelandic stocks.
Marc Lichtenfeld
Sphere: Related ContentAmid The Gloom, These Commodities Could Offer Some Great Buying Opportunities
November 17, 2008
Monday, November 17, 2008
by Lee Lowell, Futures Options & Commodities Specialist, Smart Profits Report
Welcome to another installment of “Commodities Corner.”
I’m filling in today for my colleague, Jim Stanton, who’s taking a well-earned vacation. His bi-weekly “Sector Watch” column will return next Monday.
Having the chance to write to you for two straight weeks comes at a good time. There’s plenty to talk about - and heck, the news isn’t all bad either! Certainly a refreshing change.
In fact, we finally might be getting a welcome break from the massive selling that has smothered the commodity world over the last few months. In the dozen or so markets that we track, we’re beginning to see some sideways trading. And since that’s the first step in building a solid base in prices, that’s a good sign.
Beware, though…
Caveat Emptor… The Bear Still Lurks
Before you get too excited, we still have to exercise caution because in technical analysis, sideways trading on the charts can either lead to another bearish wave or a move upward. So until we see a definitive upward push from here, we can’t get too bullish. However, since prices have already fallen so heavily, I’m more inclined to believe this is the beginning of a future upside movement. And about darn time, too!
With Many Speculators Washed Out and Another Potential Production Cut From OPEC, Oil Gets Closer To A Bottom
Last week, I wrote about how the price of oil was flirting with the $60 a barrel mark - a level not seen since January 2007. But “flirting” doesn’t appropriately describe the plunge it took from there. By the time Friday came around, it had bottomed out at around $54.70 - a price last recorded in June 2005.
Travel across the country, and you’ll see signs for $2 a gallon gasoline or less. With the sharp plunge in prices, we’ve seen a good washout out of much of the speculative money that fueled oil’s historic run up to $147 a barrel back in July.
Even though oil is reaching oversold territory on a technical analysis level, that doesn’t always mean we’ve hit bottom and it still might have further to fall. However, it does mean that we’re getting closer.
The OPEC oil cartel has tried to stabilize prices twice this year and reports indicate that it might be leaning towards doing that again. You see, while the average American might be enjoying much lower gas prices, OPEC is most decidedly not - a complete reversal of the situation we saw in the summer, when Americans were miserable and OPEC loved the extra cash. The cartel is desperate to keep oil from sliding below $50 a barrel.
Time will tell what moves OPEC will make, but as 2008 draws to a close, I wouldn’t be surprised to see trading slow down considerably. If that happens, prices will meander along without stretching too far in one direction or another until after we’ve rung in the New Year.
Natural Gas Closing In On Optimal Buying Price
Natural gas carved out another new low last week as well, barely stopping above the $6.000 per mmbtu level - an area we haven’t seen since February 2005. Since hitting that low, it’s bounced higher to its current price of $6.500 per mmbtu.
Just like crude oil, we may be getting very near to a bottom in prices as the chart is getting somewhat oversold. And if history is any guide, we’re nearing a great buying opportunity. Since 2003, any price of natural gas in the low $5.000 per mmbtu range has turned out to be an excellent time to get in on the action.
I’ll keep both eyes on the situation in case that chance does come up in the near future, however, again, we might not see that happen until after the holiday season is officially over.
Stock Activity Is The Trigger For Metal Movement
If it’s a hearty dose of sideways trading action you want, gold and silver are mirroring their energy-based commodities.
But because they’re more inter-connected with the stock market than physical commodities, they’re susceptible to more influence from the stock market’s gyrations. So if stocks can somehow sustain any sign of bullish life, the metals have a strong likelihood of winning out.
The Fabric Of Our Lives Could Be Setting Up To Make Us A Pretty Penny
Last but not least, we turn to the grains and softs markets.
One of the most interesting charts here is cotton. If you haven’t been tracking the market, then let me tell you that prices are getting very close to lows that we haven’t seen since 2001. And since I only have data that spans backs to 1979, I don’t know when it touched a lower amount before then.
Cotton is getting very close to long-term support levels, and the 2001 low of roughly $0.28/pound could be in our sights. If we get down to that area and it holds, we could possibly have one helluva buying opportunity, using limited-risk option strategies of course! I’ll keep you posted.
Good trading.
Lee
Sphere: Related ContentThe Best Investment Strategy For A Market Like This… The Truth About Covered Call Investing
November 14, 2008
Friday, November 14, 2008
by Karim Rahemtulla, Investment Director, Smart Profits Report
I know we don’t usually send the Smart Profits Report to you on a Friday. But with the stock market still crazier than a drunken leprechaun and this year’s economic and financial woes leaving many consumers seriously strapped for cash - just as the holiday season rolls in - I want to make sure you know one thing…
Yes, this is a tough market. No doubt about that. But far from throwing in the towel or panicking about it, in every market, there are strategies that can help you recoup losses, make money and even protect investments from future shocks.
Panic At Your Peril
Believe me, there are times I’m sure the last thing you want to hear about is the stock market. Sometimes, that’s true for me, too! And I understand that with each day that your portfolio losses grow, that’s when panic and/or depression sets in. When I was a rookie investor, I felt that way, because I didn’t think there was anything I could do.
But take it from me: At times like this, you must avoid panicking at all costs.
The thing is, markets are not one-way streets. And although it’s tough to argue that fact when we’re in a midst of an extreme correction that can only be compared to a 100-year flood, events like this can happen and we simply have to deal with it.
So this is not the time for a pity party or complaining. Here’s why…
Picking Through The Rubble For Strength And Extreme Value
While the stock market looks like a tornado has whipped through it over the past few months, lurking in the rubble are companies trading at valuations we haven’t seen for decades.
What’s more, they’re good, solid companies. True survivors that will allow you to recoup your losses as the market bounces back. And while it’s important to note that this may take some time, if you don’t have a horse in the race, you have no chance of winning, or even placing.
So where does that leave investors like you and me? What’s the best way forward?
An Investor’s Best Friend
Over the past few months, one investment strategy has risen to the top of the pack.
In fact, people whom I never thought would embrace it are now raving about its benefits. But understand that this is a strategy for those who can look beyond the hype and promise of home run, triple-digit return promises and instead towards something that many investors crave right now: Steady, consistent income.
And it’s a strategy that has taught me that there are ways to benefit from volatile and even falling markets - perfect for the current climate.
I’m referring to covered call investing.
In a nutshell, the strategy has two parts…
- You buy shares of a company.
- You sell call options against your shares.
What does this accomplish? First, it allows you to reduce your basis in the share price by collecting a special “dividend” (known as a premium) from the proceeds of the options that you sold.
In a flat or range bound market, you can do this over and over again, consistently reducing your original cost and setting yourself up for big returns in the future. Here’s how it works…
The Breakdown Of A Covered Call Trade
Let’s say you like General Electric (NYSE: GE).
You buy shares of GE at the current price around $17.
Against this position you sell GE $20 call options that expire in January 2009.
What this means is that you’re obligated to sell your GE in January at $20 if - and only if - the share price is over $20 at the time. If not, you keep your GE shares and any proceeds you received for selling the option.
If GE closes below $20 at expiration in January, you can sell another option and collect more money and continue to lower your cost. The caveat here is that if GE closes above $20, you still only get $20. The loss of the upside is the price you pay for the safety of lowering your downside.
The money you receive for selling the option(s) is called the premium. For example, if GE January $20 options are trading for $1, you will receive $1 for each share that you own and have sold an option against it.
Remember, options trade in contracts, with each contract equal to 100 shares. So if you own 100 shares of GE, you can sell one call option contracts. At $1 per contract, you will receive $100 - 1 contract x 100 shares per contract x $1.
So let’s say you sell just one call option against your 100 shares. With the $1 premium, your cost in GE is now $16 and your upside is $4 - the difference between the strike price and your cost. The extra dollar you picked up is like an extra 6% dividend ($1 divided by $16 (your cost).
But I like to put my own twist on this. It’s not exactly the conventional way of covered call investing - but it’s a big reason why my Strategic Income service has managed to notch up a 70% win rate over the past 11 years. Here’s what I do…
An Even Better Way To Trade Covered Calls
Instead of selling a call option above the price at which you buy the underlying shares, you sell it below that price.
My rationale is this: We’re essentially saying to the market that we want to own GE shares… but we want to own them at a lower price. Our price. Here’s how it works.
~ We buy GE at $17
~ We then sell the January 2009 $15 calls against the position.
For doing so, we’ll automatically get $2 back - known as the “intrinsic value” ($17 minus $15.) But we’ll get more.
For time and risk, we’ll pick up an extra $1 to make the total premium $3 ($2 intrinsic plus $1 for time and risk). That lowers our original cost in GE to $14.
So we stand to make $1 profit on the trade, as long as GE closes above $15 in January. If this happens, our return is about 7% in a couple of months - a full $2 below the current price.
You see how this works? We’re not betting that the shares are going higher… we’re actually saying that if they go nowhere or even lower, we still stand to make money as long as the shares are above our cost of $14 ($17 purchase price minus $3 premium received).
Three Chances To Win In A Market Like This? I’ll Take It!
The bottom line here is that we have three chances to win…
- If GE shares rise, we win.
- If GE remains flat, we win.
- If GE shares fall - but not under $14 - we win.
I don’t know about you, but I like those odds - especially in a market like this.
But what happens if GE slides under $14?
Well, since our cost was lower than the $17 we paid for the shares, there is an excellent chance that we’ll be able to sell more options and reduce our cost even further, while increasing our upside potential.
Do You Want To Win On 70% Of The Trades You Make?
As I said, covered call investing is an excellent strategy to use in a market like this. Even the mainstream financial media have picked up on it recently. But beware that you don’t get suckered in by one of the hyped-up, but very raw “Johnny-Come-Lately” products out there, which over-promise, but under-deliver. With the twist we put on it in my Strategic Income service, we’ve won over 70% of the time.
And even though we take the occasional defeat, the loss is usually limited since we’ve already reduced our cost so much. And in some cases - like one trade we have in our portfolio right now - we’re in the position of owning one company for absolutely nothing because we’ve sold calls against it at opportune times.
And you’d better believe that there’s nothing quite like a feeling of owning something of value for nothing - especially in this market!
So that’s the theory behind arguably the most powerful, income-producing investment strategy on the market. If you like the sound of this - and frankly, who wouldn’t? - I’d like to personally invite you to join me and an exclusive group of smart investors who are using this strategy consistently to defy the market and pocket some steady income while most others are losing theirs.
Take a few minutes this weekend to read this report I’ve prepared for you, with more on the subject. And enjoy your weekend, too.
Best regards,
Karim Rahemtulla
Related Articles at: www.smartprofitsreport.com:
Selling Covered Calls - Getting Cash for Stocks You Already Own
The Breakdown Of A Covered Call Trade
Grandma Got Run Over By A Reindeer: How You Can Profit From The Retail Sector Bloodbath This Holiday Season
November 14, 2008
Thursday, November 13, 2008: Issue #575
by Marc Lichtenfeld, Senior Analyst & Healthcare Specialist, Smart Profits Report
Stating that the retail sector has suffered a bombardment of bad news the last few months is like saying the Atlantic Ocean is wet.
My colleague Paul Moore wrote an excellent piece on Tuesday, detailing Circuit City’s (NYSE: CC) problems. Let me first say that I agree with Paul on Circuit City and that its woes are company-specific and a result of poor management, rather than a sector wide problem.
While we may not see bankruptcies springing up everywhere, expect this holiday season to be a bloodbath for retailers.
Let’s look at what this year’s crucial shopping season has in store - and of course, the best ways to profit…
A Shift In American Shopping Philosophy
“Shop ‘Till You Drop.”
No sooner have many Americans digested their Thanksgiving turkey and got over the tryptophan-induced grogginess and bloating than they rush out to the mall, with this rallying cry ringing in their ears.
The most important factor in trying to forecast retail sales is income. And because we’re not a nation of savers, if Americans are making money, they’re usually spending it soon afterwards.
The problem right now, though, is this: Because the country has endured a widespread slump, Americans are starting to change the way they think. They’re fearful about their incomes.
Average consumers have already cut back on their spending, and will likely tighten their wallets even more as we head deeper into this overarching bear market. And with good reason, too…
The Stats Paint An Ugly Picture
- On Wednesday, Fidelity Investments started the process of laying off 1,300 workers.
- Chicago Mayor Richard Daley said Wednesday that CEOs who do business in Chicago have warned him that mass layoffs are coming this month and in December - with more on the way next year.
- According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, over 235,000 people lost their jobs in 2,269 mass layoff events, which are described as layoffs involving at least 50 people in a single action. This was the highest total since 2001.
- Job losses on Wall Street alone are expected to total at least 45,000.
On top of that, initial jobless claims are at the highest level in eight years and we’ve got an unemployment rate of 6.5% - a figure not seen since 1994.
Those figures alone spell trouble for the retail sector, but when people suggest those numbers could climb into the double-digits, well… you can imagine the misery that would ensue.
Simply put, people are just plain scared. Retail is enduring a double-whammy. On one hand, it’s suffering because people are already getting laid off and don’t have the income to buy flat-screen TV and iPods. And following swiftly behind it is the very significant issue that existing workers, mindful of the ugly trend, are worried that the next swing of the axe will hit them.
In other words, it’s bad right now and likely to get worse. One of the biggest casualties of the whole affair will doubtlessly be the retail sector, as it gets pounded like a veal scaloppini.
Your Christmas Stock Shopping List Should Include These Three Retailers
Since the market hit the skids, I’ve been a big advocate of compiling stock watchlists to keep on your radar. That way, when it’s time to pull the trigger, you’ll have all the resources and information right there at your fingertips. All you’ll need to do is take a deep breath and fire.
So, with that happier thought in mind, here are some retailers you might want to start thinking about:
~ Kohl’s (NYSE: KSS)
Kohl’s is in an excellent position to take advantage of the bankruptcies of competitors such as Mervyns. According to Toronto-based Thomas Weisel Partners, Kohl’s has picked up 20% of Mervyn’s market share in areas where Mervyns had to exit.
Since Mervyns plans on closing another 149 stores in California, that gives Kohl’s even more room to maneuver, which should provide a holiday boost.
~ Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT)
There’s no doubt that Wal-Mart’s core demographic is feeling the pinch in this economy, with little leeway to buy new televisions and other extravagances.
However, while they can easily cast aside those extras, they still need necessities such as food and clothing - areas where Wal-Mart excels because of its lower prices.
And speaking of lower prices, you’re likely to see Wal-Mart attracting new customers these days, too. Gone are the good old days when you could just stroll into Coach and treat yourself to a new purse or briefcase. Luxuries like that are off the table for now, so Wal-Mart options are looking better and better to many people.
As CEO Lee Scott states: “Wal-Mart has momentum as we move into the fourth quarter. At a time when our customer is feeling the pressure of a tough economy, Wal-Mart’s price leadership is more important than ever.”
One caveat, though. Despite blowing third-quarter estimates away, with profits rising 10%, Wal-Mart has trimmed its fourth-quarter profit outlook, due to economic concerns.
~ Dollar Tree (Nasdaq: DLTR)
Not surprisingly, Dollar Tree shares are up significantly this year. In fact, the company boasts the best margins in the business right now. It chalked up double-digit earnings growth over the past two quarters and consumer traffic is increasing. The stock is trading at just 1.09 times its expected 14% growth rate. We don’t advocate shoplifting, but this is a steal.
… And A Happy New Year
The retail picture isn’t pretty. But it’s not completely ruined.
There will be a time when it will be right to get back in to stocks like Whole Foods (Nasdaq: WFMI) and Tiffany’s (NYSE: TIF). And that time will be before the economy is showing signs of recovery.
Why? Because we want to buy them cheaply when nobody else wants them. But we still have time before that occurs. In the meantime, concentrate your efforts on the companies like the ones I mentioned above - ones that should thrive and emerge stronger because of the hardship.
Marc Lichtenfeld
Related Articles at: www.smartprofitsreport.com:
Circuit City Blows A Fuse… But Here’s Why Its Bankruptcy Doesn’t Spell Holiday Doom For Retailers
Retail Services: Here’s What To Expect In The Retail Sector’s Most Critical Two Months
Black Friday 2007: Here’s A Retailer That Could Profit From The Madness Of The Holiday Season
Sphere: Related ContentHear It From Our Premium Members...
~Dexter L., Jonesboro, GA
-
Recent Articles
Tune Out The Retail Doomsayers… These Firms Could Bust This Season’s Trend
Don’t Just Wear It… Buy It: This Commodity Is Inching Towards An Excellent Buy Level
With “Black Friday” Just Hours Away, Here Are Some Retailers You Can Put In Your Portfolio
With A Changing Of The Political Guard, Now Is The Time To Harness The Profit Potential Of Wind Power
Recent Smart Profits Blog Posts
What Others Have To Say...
~ Bob C., Smyrna, GA
