Selling Covered Calls

December 27, 2005

The Smart Profits Report: Issue #270
Tuesday, December 27, 2005

Selling Covered Calls - Getting Cash for Stocks You Already Own
By Lee Lowell
Advisory Panelist, Mt. Vernon Research

If you own at least 100 shares of stock, and you’re not selling call options against it, then you are throwing away free money. How’s that?

Well, there are other traders out there who will give you money today for the right to take your stock away from you if it reaches a much higher price.

Selling covered calls is such a great strategy for padding your bank account that I still can’t believe there are investors who aren’t taking advantage of it. It’s one of the best ways to take in extra cash flow that you never thought you could have.

Here’s how it works…

Selling "Longshots" On Intel With Out-of-the-Money Calls

Let’s say you own 500 shares of Intel Corp (INTC) that you bought in 1997 for $25.50/share. How have you done?

Well, if you didn’t sell during the tech bubble in 2000, then you are breaking even as of today, with INTC trading for about $26/share. Bummer. All that time and you still haven’t made any money on it. You probably could’ve used that money to invest in something else, or at least buy yourself a nice gift after all that time. Who knew? Nobody knows how an investment will turn out over time.

What could you have done in the meantime? Sold covered call options against your shares. There are two great things about this strategy:

  • It allows you to passively accumulate income over time by having someone else pay you money. You become the option seller. For every 100 shares of INTC you own, you can sell one option contract. In this case, you can sell five option contracts.
  • It reduces your cost basis of the stock by the amount of the option you sold. If you sell enough covered calls over time, your cost basis could be zero! Let’s look at an example.

Below is an option chain for INTC with an April 2006 expiration date. The last price for INTC was $25.97 (upper right corner).

What we want to do is concentrate on selling out-of-the-money (OTM) call options. An OTM call option has a strike price that’s higher than the current price of the stock. In this example, we will focus on the $30 strike calls.

We see from the "Bid" column that the $30 calls are bidding at $.25. This means that for every $30 call we sell, we will take in $25 ($.25 x $100 multiplier). Since we own 500 shares, we can sell five option contracts and net a take-home pay of $125.

This strategy is great if we really like the stock and want to keep it in our portfolio. The only way we give up the stock is if it moves a good deal higher. Instead of waiting to see if INTC will ever go up in price, we are taking a proactive trading strategy and making some extra cash on the side.

What happens when we sell the $30 strike calls? It means that if INTC trades above $30 by April 2006 expiration, and stays above $30, we will be forced to sell our INTC shares to someone for $30/share. It’s called getting "assigned on our short options." But is that a bad thing?

Well, considering that INTC hasn’t been above $30 in almost two years, and you don’t really want to give up your shares, I don’t think it’s a bad bet. Plus, the trade is only good until April 2006. If INTC doesn’t get above $30/share by April 2006 expiration, then the trade is over and we get to keep the $125 free and clear… and we also keep our long INTC stock. We can also repeat the trade for a different expiration month.

If you happen to get assigned on your call options and are forced to sell the stock, then so be it. You still came out ahead. Not only did you make $125 from the options, but you also have a gain on the stock from your original purchase price of $25.50. That’s a $2,250 gain.

Using The Force When Selling Covered Calls

Selling OTM covered calls forces you to take some profits along the way (assuming you are selling calls with strike prices above your initial stock buy price). Also, since we are selling the calls for $.25, it reduces our cost basis to $25.25. Do that enough times over the years and your cost basis could be zero!

Some investors will worry about causing a capital gains tax event if they are assigned and forced to sell their shares. That’s true. But in my opinion, it’s better to take a profit somewhere along the way.

Would you rather hold your stock just to avoid the IRS? Look at all the stocks that have imploded since the 2000 meltdown. I’m sure there are many folks kicking themselves for not selling at some point, either through a regular stock sale or by an option assignment.

In the case of our INTC example, if we had been selling covered calls all along, taking in $125 once every three months or so, we could have netted a nice sum while the stock lingered for seven years. It’s sort of like a consolation prize while you’re waiting. Everyone else who didn’t sell covered calls has nothing to show for it.

This strategy is a way to gain sideline income while you wait for an eventual sell price (you do have a sell point, don’t you?) Why not sell potentially worthless options, repeat the process many times during the year, lower your cost basis and enjoy the income?

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Today’s Smart Profits Cribsheet

  • Lee spent seven years in the options pits of the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX)… And he’s taken us behind the scences to help us understand the role of the market makers. Check out his Market Maker Series, Smart Profits #241, #243, #247 and #252.
  • And if you haven’t looked into Lee’s special electronic report, How to Receive Instant Cash Payments for "Locking In" Lower Prices on Your Favorite Stocks, now is a great time to do so. It’s a handbook that can be e-mailed right to your inbox
  • For a better understanding of terms like "covered calls" or "margin", check out our Smart Profits Glossary.

Good trading,

Lee

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Emerging Markets of China

December 22, 2005

The Smart Profits Report: Issue #269
Thursday, December 22, 2005

Emerging Markets: Forget the Great Wall of China - Let’s Go Shopping
By Karim Rahemtulla
Chairman, Mt. Vernon Research

Each year at Christmas time, I buy a lot of presents for family and friends. I also buy myself something that I want or need. This is usually the most difficult present because I have just about everything that I need… and some of the stuff that I want I can’t justify buying.

Oh! To be Bill Gates for just a day! Or to travel to a distant land with dirt-cheap eyewear. Let me explain…

Christmas in China…

Earlier this year, I was in China. What I loved most about the country was the shopping. Sure, the Great Wall is something to behold. But I have been to China many times and have enjoyed the cultural experiences. This time, my focus was shopping. And I was not disappointed.

Thoughts of quitting my day job flitted through my mind. I could go to China once a month, buy a container load of stuff for next to nothing, and sell it for a huge profit stateside. (But, wait, Wal-Mart’s already doing that.)

Instead, I concentrated on buying things that were fun. I bought an antique camera for $100, about $2,000 less than a similar model I saw at a show in Florida. I bought some leather goods for family members for about $60 - two jackets and a vest. And, I bought a bunch of “junk.” A suitcase full of this stuff set me back about $20, including the suitcase!

My favorite purchase was a pair of rimless prescription glasses at the Pearl Market. And after realizing what they’d cost me in the States, I should have bought 10 pairs!

Capital Losses Back Home

About a week ago, I lost the rimless glasses… I ended up wearing my prescription sunglasses for two days of meetings at our Baltimore offices. I was interviewing several editors for the Agora Financial Year-End Forecast Series (see today’s Crib Sheet for details). It was quite funny… I am sure they thought I was trying to act cool.

Anyway, when I got home I went to the local Pearle Vision Center to look for a new pair of rimless frames and lenses.

The first thing they told me was that my prescription was more than two years old, so I had to get a new eye exam. I informed them that I could see just fine and that I would not have been able to find their store if my vision needed to be corrected. I also informed them that I have been using the same prescription for at least 20 years with no measurable, unusual side effects. There was no getting out of it - $39 for a new exam, or no new glasses.

Fine! I went over to the rimless frame section. “Those are for women,” the associate yelled out… maybe I do need an eye exam. He pointed me over to the men’s section. The selection was smaller. I perused the frames and the ones that I wanted cost $319. They were identical to the frames I bought in China.

“How much for the lenses?” I asked politely. Another $149 was the answer. I asked for the total for a pair. It came to just a tad more than $500, plus the mandatory exam. “Jeez, what a rip off,” I muttered under my breath. “Any discounts?”

“Only if you buy TWO pairs” came the reply. If I bought a second pair, I would get $100 off the total. Now, if I were my significant other, this would be a savings. “Look, honey, I just saved us $100!”

At this point, I was convinced that I would not be walking out of the store with new specs that day. But, I asked anyway: “Can they be ready in an hour?”

“Oh, no. These are polycarbonate and they need to be sent out so that they can drill directly into the lens, it will take at least two weeks.”

I was taken aback. Not only did they want to charge me for more than any other pair of glasses in the store, but they would not be ready for at least two weeks. And I would have to take an eye exam as well, just to pad their profits some more. I thanked them for their time and walked back to my car.

I thought back fondly about the Pearl Market experience in China. I bought my rimless glasses with lenses and a sunglass clip for $40 - a 92% discount! They got my prescription off the pair I was wearing. And they had the pair ready in 45 minutes. I need to get back there ASAP.

Using my partner’s shopping methodology, I could buy two pairs in China for $90, and save $900 compared to the price at home - enough to pay for a round-trip ticket and two nights at the five-star Hyatt in Beijing!

Happy Holidays from the staff of The Smart Profits Report, Mt. Vernon Research and the Xcelerated Profits Report.

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Today’s Smart Profits Cribsheet

  • Today I mentioned the Agora Financial Year-End Forecast Series. This one’s a “must-know.” See what to expect in the markets this year

Good trading,

Karim

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Principal Protection

December 20, 2005

The Smart Profits Report: Issue #268
Tuesday, December 20, 2005

Principal Protection: How to "Defend" Your Principal From a 50% "Bomb"
By Steve McDonald
Advisory Panelist, Mt. Vernon Research

Top Gun and other fighter pilot movies have done a great job creating a stereotypical image of an aviator - a daring and adventurous soldier with perfect vision and a propensity for never making a mistake. You’d think they could walk on water…  One of the funniest things to watch when I was flying for the Navy was newer guys trying to live up to this Hollywood image of Naval Aviation.

But believe me, it’s not brain surgery.  And neither is investing.

Picking stocks and options is a tough job, to be sure, but those of us who do it successfully on a consistent basis don’t walk on water. The truth is, after almost 25 years of stock trading, I have learned, usually the hard way, there are several rules written in blood. And one of them is that you can’t avoid making a mistake somewhere along the line.

But being able to handle those mistakes and protect your principal is a skill you can master. Here’s how…

Three Rules To Protect Your Portfolio

#1: Accept that you will always have losers.

  • If you are operating under the idea that there is some secret system that you haven’t found yet that will allow you to avoid losers, you’ll have to change your assumptions. Investing is a game of averages. You must plan for losers and have a way to deal with them.

#2: Get out early.

  • Admit your mistakes early and often. Not only will you limit your losses, you’ll have a happier marriage. If the market says you’re wrong, then you’re wrong. Any effort to change the inevitable will only make you feel more foolish down the road.

#3: Have a system for dealing with your losers.

  • We call these systems trailing stops, stop losses, stop limits, etc. Know what they are and use them. If you don’t limit your losses, you won’t have any money left when the market goes in your favor.

There is nothing more exciting or satisfying than investing in options. There is also nothing more painful than watching the losers tank.

This is as much a head game as it is a game of numbers. You must be prepared for the downs and be ready to deal with the emotional dips, or they will eat you up. Call it discipline, market savvy or whatever you like. The difference between the big boys and the rookies is how they deal with the losers.

Back To The Drawing Board

Let me give you an example…

Recently, I had a straddle I was following where both the call and the put were down. A straddle is when you buy the puts and the calls on the same underlying issue, at the same strike price and expiration. Then in this case, how could both be down

Well, it’s the market, and with so many variables, anything can happen. Besides, how isn’t the question we should be asking, as it is out of our control. The real question is: What should you do to protect your principal?

In my case, I sold. And I lost about 30% overall. But the point is, two days after I sold it, it was bombed even more, for a 50% loss.  I prevented myself from taking a huge bath by having my stops in place… and they worked exactly the way they were supposed to.

Walking away is always tougher, but don’t look back. It’s part of the plan. Learning this simple fact about principal protection is a huge hurdle for most people. Be one of the smart ones.

Great Trading,

Steve

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Today’s Smart Profits Cribsheet

  • Want more on straddles and strangles? Take a look back at Smart Profits # 257, Options Strangle Tips: Extracting Three Stranle Tips from a 515% Gain to see how these strategies to work.
  • For more explanations of options terms like "position sizing" or "straddle," check out our free Smart Profits Glossary.

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Option Credit Spreads

December 15, 2005

The Smart Profits Report: Issue #267
Thursday, December 15, 2005

Option Credit Spreads: Sell First, Buy Second for 50% Better Odds
By Lee Lowell
Advisory Panelist, Mt. Vernon Research

Much of my own option trading occurs from the short side. I’m not referring to a bearish directional outlook, but rather a trading strategy that involves the selling of options instead of buying them. This involves either selling “naked” options, or initiating option credit spreads.

You see, you don’t always have to be an options buyer, and you don’t have to own something first before you can sell it. The great thing about the financial markets is that you can sell first and buy second, instead of the long-standing philosophy of buy first, sell later.

The reason I like to sell options is because I believe that you gain more margin for error if you are incorrect in your market assessment. But you have to know how to sell them correctly. You can’t just sell any old option and think you’ll have a profitable trade. You have to take into consideration the following:

  • The general direction of the market or stock you’re trading
  • The strike price
  • Time to expiration
  • Volatility of the options

Many people trade options under the assumption that because they think they know where the stock is headed, they can buy cheap out-of-the-money (OTM) options with little time to expiration. This is the downfall of most option traders. How many of us are actually that good at predicting where and when a stock is going to move? I know I’m not, but many investors still trade options that way. You’re giving yourself such a small window to be correct in your assessment since there’s not much time left before the option expires.

Let’s look at why the short side can be more profitable than the long… and how to set up a put credit spread for a 75% chance of winning.

Three Out of Four Chances to Win With A Credit Spread

When you buy an OTM call or put, you only have one way to be profitable, and that’s if the stock moves far enough higher or lower to pass your break-even point in the time allotted. When you sell an out-of-the-money call or put, or an OTM credit spread, you actually have three ways to become profitable.

For example, if you sell an OTM put option or put credit spread, you will be profitable if the stock moves higher, stays flat, or moves slightly lower, but not lower than your break-even. If you sell an OTM call option or call credit spread, you will be profitable if the stock moves lower, stays flat, or moves slightly higher, but not higher than your break-even. The only way to lose is if the stock moves well past your break-even price.

So that’s three out of four scenarios, or a 75% chance of having a successful trade when selling options. When buying options, you really only have a one-in-four chance of winning, or 25%. I like the odds better when selling options - you can be incorrect in your market assessment to a degree, and still have a profitable trade.

Let’s take a real-life scenario and see how I would set up an option trade:

Here’s a six-month daily chart of March 2006 Sugar. We can easily see that sugar has been in an uptrend for quite some time, so why try to rock the boat and trade any other way? Let’s stick with the trend and look for a bullish trade.

Instead of buying call options and trying to predict what level sugar might go up to, we’re going to look at selling OTM put credit spreads instead. Selling put credit spreads is a bullish strategy that lets us take advantage of our directional bias, but also gives us room for error if sugar retraces to the downside somewhat.

How The Option Credit Spread Works

Ideally, we’d like to wait for sugar to pull back a little to one of our trendlines before initiating the trade, but I will show you the strategy so you understand how it works. Since we believe sugar won’t retrace much lower than the $1,270 level, we’ll use that as our support area, and the place in which to pick the strike prices for the put spread. We’d like to sell the $1,250/$1,200 put spread (not a recommendation - educational purposes only!). Let’s check the option prices below.

We can sell the March 2006 $1,250/$1,200 put spread for 9 points. Here’s how it breaks down:

What we’re doing is selling the $1,250 put (for a credit of 21 points) and buying the $1,200 put (which costs us 12 points) as a single trade for a net credit of 9 points. If you look in the “Last” column, you’ll see the prices for each strike. Just take the difference between the two and you get your net price.

In the sugar market, each point is worth $11.50, so our initial credit is $103.50 (9 x $11.50) for each spread we sell. Since we are bullish, we don’t want sugar to go lower than our break-even price of $1,241. In order to figure the break-even, you take the upper strike in this case and subtract the net credit ($1,250 - 9 = $1,241). As long as sugar stays above $1,241, we will retain the net credit and have a profitable trade. Sugar can go higher, stay flat, or go lower, but not lower than $1,241 for us to win. Since sugar is currently at $1,381, we have much room for error and three out of four chances to win.

Based on our technical analysis, I think it’s easier to predict what level the market WON’T get to, rather than the level it MIGHT go to.

Good Trading,

Lee Lowell

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Today’s Smart Profits Cribsheet

  • And if you haven’t looked into Lee’s special electronic report, “How to Receive Instant Cash Payments for “Locking In” Lower Prices on Your Favorite Stocks”, now is a great time to do so. It’s a handbook that can be e-mailed right to your inbox… Click here.

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A Bond Play

December 13, 2005

The Smart Profits Report: Issue #266
Tuesday, December 13, 2005

A Bond Play: Now, Something Completely Different
By Karim Rahemtulla
Chairman, Mt. Vernon Research

Every so often, something I see in my research The Volatility Traderme to alert you, even though it is not options related. Especially if there’s an opportunity to make some money…

A few months ago, I wrote to you that Bill Gross, the guru of fixed income investing at Pimco and the country’s largest bond fund manager, was buying shares of Pimco Municipal Funds. Not surprisingly, he - and you - should be up more than 15% on that bond play, including dividends received.

But what is surprising is that interest rates have moved up almost 200 basis points since he began buying, yet he’s made money.

A Rising Interest Rate = A Nice Bond Play?

Normally, in a rising interest rate environment, existing bond portfolios tend to lose value (because newly issued bonds have better coupon rates, therefore decreasing the demand - and value - of existing bonds).

Gross’ belief, and I agree with him, is that the Fed will stop raising rates in a couple of months. This opinion is based on historical rate hikes and the fact that the consumer and housing sector is not as strong as one would believe from the headlines. Already, housing in many parts of the country is losing steam.

Last week, I read that prices in some Boston neighborhoods had seen prices decline by 15% and more - not a soft landing.

What About The Almost Inverted Yield Curve?

Here is some insight from Gross’ notes in his latest investment outlook… Bill Gross thinks lower rates on the longer-term bonds are here to stay.

His argument centers around the flow of funds from countries like China, and the effect that lowered manufacturing costs have on inflation. He says that these factors have actually reduced the yield on bonds by as much as 200 basis points.

Basically, the 10-year bond at 4.6% today is equivalent to 6.6% in the past. So, we are approaching the top-end of the rate cycle, and the next trend, likely to set in a few months from now, will be neutral to easing.

Putting Money Where Your Mouth Is

What I like most about Bill Gross is that he puts his money where his mouth is. He recently purchased 1,000 shares of two Pimco closed-end floating rate funds - PFN and PFL - both listed on the NYSE. To no one’s surprise, both are trading near their lows and yielding close to 8%.

When he was buying the Pimco Municipal Funds, they were near their lows as well, and he managed to put away quite a chunk. It looks like history just might repeat itself.

Good Trading,

Karim

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Back-Testing Strategy

December 6, 2005

The Smart Profits Report: Issue #264
Tuesday, December 6, 2005

Back-Testing Strategy: 1.8 Billion Ways to Improve Your Trades
By Dean Albrecht
Advisory Panelist, Mt. Vernon Research

As the editor of a trading service, I’ve got a pretty big responsibility to generate hefty results for my subscribers. And because I need to be confident about the direction of my trades, I make it a point to use as much information as possible. One type of information that consistently generates good results for me is historical data.

Yesterday, the New York Stock Exchange saw nearly 1.8 billion shares change hands, which is pretty close to its average. But over the weeks and months, you’re talking about a ton of information! So, why not use this tome of historical trades to our advantage?

Today, let’s look at how to use recent market data through a back-testing strategy to get an edge in your trading.

The Three Questions “Back-Testing” Can Answer

One of the reasons I trade options is to enjoy the higher percentage gains compared to stocks. But there is also inherently more percentage risk. That’s why back-testing can play an important role. It allows us to put our strategies under the microscope prior to using real money on our ideas.

It’s usually very tedious work - punching loads of buttons, changing parameters and writing codes. But something we get excited about.

How important is back-testing? Well, as I said before, I like to have a pretty good idea about how my trades are likely to go… before I pull the trigger. Then, I’ll run tests in real time to see how the strategies do with real money.

For example, we have an exchange-traded fund (ETF) strategy that we follow quite closely. When we created the system, we knew that the swings in the near-term, in-the-money calls and puts were significant. But we wanted to know the answers to three questions before we put any money on the line:

  • Will our entries and exits be good?
  • Will they be high-probability trades, with percentage swings in the options upward of 30%?
  • At what point do we take our losses and lick our wounds before we lose too much of our capital?

The Back-Testing Strategy = Confidence In Trading

What we ended up creating was a system that is right more than 65% of the time, and has 20% losses once a month and 20% gains two to three times per month. The numbers work, but we didn’t deploy the strategy until we did the back-testing to make sure that our idea had a good chance of winning over the long run.

Once we had the confidence to run the strategy, we deployed it with real money and worked out the real-time kinks, ultimately creating a winning strategy. And back-testing enabled us to do it more quickly.

While we don’t base our whole belief system on back-testing, it can give us substantiated confidence, or at least a shot of reality to keep us out of a bad trade. Either way, we get more than a good idea of where we may end up.

Good Trading,

Dean

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Today’s Smart Profits Cribsheet

  • Speaking of strategies, check out what Mt. Vernon Research’s Steve McDonald has to offer on straddles and strangles in Smart Profits #260, Trading Index Options: Two Ways To Profit; and #257, Option Strangle Tips: Extracting Three Strangle Tips From a 515% Gain.
  • Check out the Smart Profits Glossary for definitions of words like “exchange traded fund” or “historic volatility” found in today’s article.

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Position Sizing Safeguards

December 1, 2005

The Smart Profits Report: Issue #263
Thursday, December 1, 2005

Position Sizing Safeguards: Prevent Corporate Lies From “Cooking” Your Portfolio
By Karim Rahemtulla
Chairman, Mt. Vernon Research

It’s been several years since the Enron, Worldcom and Global Crossing stories surfaced, and the market is a better, more honest place, right? Wrong!

The level of executive mismanagement and outright fraud is rampant in corporate America. Companies still lie, cheat and rip off their shareholders with bold promises of better growth, debt reduction, “plans” for a turnaround and rosy projections for future quarters.

What drives these executives to at best mislead investors, and at worst commit outright fraud, like that at Adelphia? The answer is simple. Too simple. So let’s look at how and why they do it… and the most important rule of thumb: to safeguard with position sizing.

Loading Up on One-Time Charges

The simplicity of this common deception is what makes it work every time. Executives know, for the most part, that their jobs and incentives are based on short-term performance. Earnings have to be good - or they must be projected to be good - just long enough for the bonuses to be paid, and the stock options to be vested and cashed out.

How does it work? Well, just sell a bunch of phony baloney to Wall Street and get the little guy to bail you out by buying into the hype. And when the time comes to reveal the ugly numbers, throw in a bunch of “one-time” charges and blame the weather.

These charges are never one-time events, but are recurring in some form or another, so that investors never know the true earnings or condition of the company. Then, hungry investment banks come along and finance the bogus companies to collect the fatter fees that can be extorted from companies in dire need.

After all, the real money is coming from other people, not the investment banks. And by the time the banks are found culpable, they will have made a ton of money trading the shares to the ground, and then more money from bankruptcy fees - enough to cover any slap-on-the-wrist fines they receive.

What You Can Do About It… Using Position Sizing

Make sure that if there is one rule you follow, it is to position size. Do not overload into any one investment idea. No matter how much of a “sure thing” you may think it is, know that the information that you are investing on is often tainted by the company before it is released to the public or the investment analysts. It’s a rough world out there, and investors are more often the prey and not the predator.

Position sizing allows you to risk only a small portion of your capital in every trade. This way, if one investment goes sour, the impact on your portfolio is relatively minor. Invest a little to make a lot - not the other way around.

Good Trading,

Karim

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Today’s Smart Profits Cribsheet

  • For some additional guidance before your next trade, head back to Smart Profits #229, Option Position Sizing: How Much to Invest in Each Option Trade.
  • If you’re not familiar with position sizing techniques, head to Smart Profits #193 right now - Position Sizing -The Most Powerful Investment Concept in the World. Every investor, no matter how experienced, can benefit from this principle. It’s the best way to control the fate of your portfolio.

 

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